Analysing how emerging online and offline narratives are created and spread within European public discourse

The European Narrative Observatory aims at identifying and analysing the emergence of narratives regarding the war in Ukraine; the increasing spread of false, harmful narratives related to gender identity and gender expression (gender-based disinformation) often seen in the context of discriminatory or pejorative speech against women, homophobia and discrimination against the LGBTQ+ community, examining ways to mitigate the risks posed to societal cohesion, democracy and fundamental human rights; and misleading narratives and disinformation around elections, with a special focus on the 2024 European elections, in view of their potential impact on public opinion, voter behaviour and democratic processes.

Disinformation narratives carry important risks and threats for EU societies and democracies. Notably, the dissemination of false and misleading information on the war in Ukraine has a strong potential to destabilise our democracies and to undermine public support for national and joint EU actions supporting Ukraine against Russia’s brutal war of aggression. False narratives targeting and attacking the LGBTQ+ community can cause significant harm in the integration and equality of these groups, as well as influence the exercise of human rights. Disinformation narratives around elections can manipulate voters and undermine the fundaments of our democracies.

The PROMPT project is to decipher the origins of these narratives and their emergence both offline and online, their role in shaping people’s minds and the emotional values that guide successful narratives. It will also map the sources and key actors active in the spreading of these narratives to the wider public. And develop a methodology, building on as appropriate on existing methodologies, to better understand how narratives emerge, how they are spread and how to respond to narratives contradicting facts.

  • The use of a concrete and efficient methodology in understanding the spread of narratives is vital to keep disinformation and misinformation at bay, analyse deliberate manipulation attempts, and provide key recommendations for effective communication to counter them.

  • The project shall also include an examination of how malign actors are manipulating European public discourse to sow discord and polarise societies and also explore if there may be a link between the spreaders of the different disinformation narratives.

  • The aim of the PROMPT project is to build on the results of the NODES project (Narratives Observatory Combatting Disinformation in Europe Systemically), designed to analyse and monitor the emergence and spread of narratives and take additional steps and further research regarding narratives creation and dissemination.

  • The project will complement the work of the European Digital Media Observatory (EDMO), while ensuring a continuous exchange of information and best practices with the latter on matters related to misleading/harmful narratives and disinformation. Building on the work of the EDMO fact-checking network, including the fourteen existing EDMO national and regional hubs funded by the European Commission, regarding national and transnational online disinformation campaigns, this action is expected to provide additional insight on the phenomenon of disinformation by an in-depth analysis of the creation of narratives focusing particularly on the abovementioned policy topics.

  • The project is expected among others to use advanced methodology and research techniques to measure the impact of dominant narratives on the real world, including individual and mass behaviour; propose strategies and methods to pre-empt and counter-act misleading narratives, including concrete measures to protect against harmful narratives; develop “inoculation” techniques, to make the public more resilient against misleading narratives and disinformation; and build effective communication strategies to mitigate the potential impact of harmful narratives.

Narratives are structures central to the spreading of ideas and the way we perceive reality. The role of narratives in shaping people’s minds has become an important area of research and debate, particularly in recent years through the emergence of new technologies and social media. Addressing the mechanics supporting the creation and dissemination of narratives can be a key building block to strengthen our public sphere and democracies in particular in view of protecting our societies against the spread of disinformation.

Objectives of the pilot project:

  1. To monitor, analyse and measure the emergence and impact of narratives related to the war in Ukraine, gendered disinformation (in particular LGBTQ+ related narratives), and elections (in particular the 2024 European elections).

  2. To draw conclusions and propose measures, future policy actions and novel practices to support the emergence of positive narratives and counter harmful false narratives. These proposed measures shall be piloted in cooperation with appropriate partners from the fact-checking, media and civil society spheres.

  3. To disseminate the results of the project toward both experts and the general audience.